Romanian Currency, a new historical minimum record against Euro
Reference rate set and announced by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) is 4.37 lei for one Euro, value that means also the highest threshold reached at the exchange rate after the previous record in June 2010.
Articol de Iulian Olescu, 17 Martie 2012, 20:53
Romanian currency reached on Friday a new historical minimum record against Euro.
The national currency continued depreciation against Euro, despite the indirect intervention of the National Bank of Romania.
Thus, the reference set and announced by BNR is 4.37 lei for one Euro, value that means an unwelcome precedent, in June 2010.
Financial market analysts believe that it is not speculation on national currency and the decrease would be brought even by downs of Romanian economy.
"I would exclude from the beginning the idea of a speculative attack, because I haven’t heard that occur in the last days some large amounts of transactions from a certain bank or a particular investor.
"Therefore, it is good to remember the root causes," said economic analyst Aurelian Dochia.
Aurelian Dochia argues that depreciation is not limited to the national currency , but includes most currencies in Eastern Europe.
Economic analyst believes that one of the causes for the depreciation of our currency against Euro is the economic developments in Romania.
"And I am referring to the growth rate of industrial production and exports, the rate that decreased significantly, foreign investment, which also fell very, very much.
"That may to some extent explain the depreciation trend on a longer period.
"However, it is best to wait to discern between different factors acting at the moment, because I find that the data we have are insufficient to say with certainty that internal factors are more or is it a general trend throughout Europe, "added Aurelian Dochia.
The economic analyst claims that can not be determined accurately rate movements beyond.
"In my opinion, if we take the basic scenario, which assumes economic growth around 2% this year and reduce the budget deficit to 2% cash, I believe that in these circumstances there is reason to trust that our national currency will remain at the level of recent weeks and recent months.
"But if you go to some extreme scenarios, the first in Europe things go wrong and fall into recession, and Romania fail to sufficiently control their internal and external deficits, then obviously that our currency would suffer, in that it could depreciate significantly, "said Aurelian Dochia.
Translated by Denisse-Meda Bucura
MTTLC, Bucharest University
